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Water-Resources Investigations Report 03-4109

Recalibration of a Ground-Water Flow Model of the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer of Northeastern Arkansas, 1918-1998, with Simulations of Water Levels Caused by Projected Ground-Water Withdrawals through 2049

By T.B. Reed

MODEL SIMULATIONS
Water levels caused by projected ground-water withdrawals were simulated using the calibrated model. Simulations represented a period of 50 years into the future in three scenarios. In Scenario 1, the 1997 pumpage is extended through 2049 without change. Scenario 2 simulates increased pumpage calculated from the trend of historic pumping increases. In Scenario 3, pumpage is decreased to 90 percent of that used in Scenario 2 in two selected areas of the Grand Prairie shown in figure 30 (of the report). Table 4 (of the report) shows the actual total pumpages that occurred during these simulations. As cells went dry during these simulations, pumpage was reduced from the original amount for the simulation scenario.

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USGS
Arkansas District